2022 is a tough year where Democrats are behind in the generic vote (-2) and enthusiasm (-4) in this large, national, battleground and CD survey. In this hard stimulated campaign, the Democrats remain 2 points behind, because they don’t sound discontented with the state of the economy and aren’t yet offering yet a larger message, attacks, and contrast that would shift the race.
Actually, the enthusiasm gap has closed somewhat from previous polls. And this surveys shows the Democrats can gain with key groups by spotlighting the Child Tax Credit, along with assault weapon purchaser age, abortion, and other issues. These issues are additive, each potentially moving more and more base and target groups a few points toward the Democrats.
You will see the Child Tax Credit is very important to CTC recipients (15 percent of the electorate) and parents (25 percent), Blacks (12 percent), Hispanics (11 percent), and white working class women under 50 years (10 percent), Millennials/Gen Z (22 percent). Highlighting the CTC pushes up Democratic votes for all.
Among the key groups, the CTC is favored by about 30-40 points, especially Blacks, CTC recipients, white millennials/Gen Z voters, and under 50 white working class women. Democrats are losing the vote to under 50 white working class women by 23 points, but they are warm to the CTC by a net +46 points.