Cash Tax Credits
Support of Tax Fairness, Child Tax Credit Galvanizes Voters in Swing Districts
07. 24. 2024
New survey shows voters respond positively to candidates who support economic policies that combat voters financial challenges
Toplines:
- Likely voters in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District and New York’s 4th Congressional District overwhelmingly worry that “many in the middle class cannot afford the basics for their family” and that the government does “too little,” to support families with the health and financial challenges of starting a family.
- Voters in these districts are in favor of raising taxes on corporations and billionaires to provide support for middle-class families. A supermajority of voters across both districts support raising taxes on corporations and billionaires to reduce the tax burden on middle-class families. Voters also explicitly support raising taxes on corporations and billionaires if it could provide additional funding for housing, childcare, and healthcare programs.
- The expanded Child Tax Credit is extremely popular. The policy, which was improved during the pandemic to refund poor, working-, and middle-class families more money for each child under age 18, create a larger tax cut for families with children under age six, and make the credit fully available for all families with low incomes, is extremely popular.
- Contrast on the Child Tax Credit moves vote choice. The issue is salient in determining vote choice in these battleground district races, with about half saying they are less likely to vote for a candidate who voted against the expanded Child Credit Tax.
- Vote choice for the Democratic challengers improved among nearly all subgroups when learning Congressional Republicans voted against the expanded Child Tax Credit, including key blocs such as women, Independents, younger voters, Hispanic voters and non-college educated voters.
The upcoming 2024 election will have major implications on economic issues far beyond the presidency. In particular, Congress is gearing up for a major tax fight in 2025 as the future of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (commonly known as the Trump tax cuts), and popular, impactful policies like the Child Tax Credit hinge on the outcomes of the tight election.The 2024 election represents an opportunity to center kitchen table economic issues in the debate, and educating voters about where candidates stand on tax fairness, tackling corporate consolidation, and expanding the Child Tax Credit.
There are over a dozen Congressional districts that voted for Biden/Harris in 2020 but saw Republican victories in the 2022 Congressional elections. New polling in two of these Republican-held battleground districts, Arizona’s 6th Congressional District and New York’s 4th Congressional District, show a clear pathway to creating winning economic contrasts this fall.
The new polling reveals that voters in these districts feel that the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer, that many in the middle class cannot afford the basics for their family, and that the American Dream no longer exists. 56% of voters in NY-04 believe that the government is doing too little when it comes to helping new families, including 63% of Black voters, 61% of Hispanic voters, 58% of Independent voters, and majorities of both parents (57%) and non-parents (55%). A large plurality of voters in AZ-06 believe that the government is doing too little when it comes to helping new families, including 54% of Hispanic voters, and 53% of Independent voters.
While voters in these swing districts believe there is too much wasteful government spending, they do not want to cut programs like Social Security and Medicare. A majority of voters in both districts (68% and 78% in AZ-06 and NY-04, respectively) would prefer “raising taxes on the rich and big corporations, including closing tax loopholes and using that extra money to pay our bills” over “cutting programs like Social Security and Medicare and using that extra money to pay our bills.”
Our polling presented detailed information to ensure voters had a comprehensive understanding of the concept of tax fairness and a host of economic issues–gauging their support taxing billionaires, closing tax loopholes, lowering prescription drug costs, controlling inflation, growing the middle class, and more.
Noting that every Republican in Congress voted against the expanded Child Tax Credit is salient, with half of voters in both districts saying it makes them less likely to vote for the incumbent this fall.
Further, on the expanded Child Tax Credit, highlighting that Democratic candidates Laura Gillen (NY-04) and Kirsten Engel (AZ-06), argue that it helps families afford essentials such as food and childcare is persuasive. They believe the expansion reduces child poverty, improves health and educational outcomes for children, and stimulates economic growth through increased consumer spending.
This framing resulted in significant changes in voter opinion.
In AZ-06
- Women voters increased their support for the Democrat by +7. Men increased their support for the Democrat by +3 (though a majority still supported the Republican).
- All age and racial groups increased their support for the Democrat.
- Non-College voters switched their support for the Republican to support for the Democrat, resulting in an increase in support for Engel of +5.
- Independent voters increased their support for the Democrat by +17.
In NY-04:
- Women voters increased their support for the Democrat by +8.
- All age and racial groups increased their support for the Democrat.
- Non-College voters switched their support from Republican to support for the Democrat, resulting in an increase in support for Gillen of +5.
- Independent voters increased their support for the Democrat by +7.
This House battleground survey highlights a path forward for a winning economic contrast message this fall.