Press Release

New Survey Finds Voters Support Tax Fairness and Expanded Child Tax Credit With Rep. D’Esposito Losing to Democratic Challenger

07. 29. 2024

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A new survey commissioned by Economic Security Project Action finds Democratic challenger Laura Gillen leading incumbent Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, amid strong support for an economic message centered on putting working families first. Rep. D’Esposito finds himself in a weakened position, in part because voters are in favor of a middle-out economic agenda, including taxing corporations and billionaires and supporting an expanded Child Tax Credit. 

New York’s 4th congressional district is one of several possible Democratic pickups in what figures to be a tight race for control of the House of Representatives.  D’Esposito defeated Gillen in 2022 by less than 10,000 votes. The rematch is rated “tossup” by the prestigious Cook Political Report, one of just 11 Republican-held seats in that category.

“This is going to be a critical congressional race that will help shape the future for so many families, particularly those struggling to afford the basics, including housing, food, and childcare,” said Anna Aurilio, Senior Director of Campaigns at Economic Security Project Action. “This survey shows that Long Island families want their elected leaders to fight for the expanded Child Tax Credit, tax fairness, and hold corporations accountable. Candidates must lean into the contrast, especially on the expanded Child Tax Credit.”

The support for tax fairness, including an expanded Child Tax Credit, follows other research that shows the issue has broad demographic appeal among young, moderate, Hispanic and white non-college-educated voters.   

Key findings of the survey include:

  • The race for New York’s 4th Congressional District is competitive. Voters prefer a generic Democratic candidate over a generic Republican candidate by a slight margin (46-40), with Democratic challenger Laura Gillen leading incumbent Anthony D’Esposito 46-39 before any additional information about their biographies or records. Gillen leads initially among all age groups, Black and Hispanic voters, and women.
  • Middle class families are hurting.  An overwhelming 87% of voters say they worry that “many in the middle class cannot afford the basics for their family.”  A wide majority, 56%, say that when it comes to helping families with the health and financial challenges of starting a family, the US government does “too little,” compared to just 12% and 16% saying “too much” or “about the right amount” respectively.
  • Voters are in favor of raising taxes on corporations and billionaires.  A large 81% of voters support raising taxes on corporations and billionaires to reduce the tax burden on middle-class families. A wide 76% of voters support raising taxes on corporations and billionaires if it could provide additional funding for housing, childcare, and healthcare programs (21%  opposed).  And by a nearly 16:1 margin, voters prefer raising taxes on the rich and big corporations to reduce the deficit over cutting programs like Social Security and Medicare (78% to 5%). 
  • Voters trust Laura Gillen to help level the playing field. On every issue raised, from protecting Social Security and Medicare to lowering healthcare costs, voters trust Gillen more than the Republican incumbent. Voters trust Laura Gillen (42%) more than Rep. D’Esposito (29%) to provide relief for families for the costs of raising kids, such as childcare, diapers, and school supplies.  Nearly half (45%) say they trust her to close tax loopholes for corporations, while only a third (30%) say they trust her opponent, Anthony D’Esposito.
  • The expanded Child Tax Credit is extremely popular. The policy, which was improved to refund poor, working-, and middle-class families more money for each child under age 18, create a larger tax cut for families with children under age six, and make the credit fully available for all families with low incomes, is extremely popular. 78% to 12% oppose.  As important, the issue is salient in determining vote choice. About half (49%) say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who voted against the Child Credit Tax. D’Esposito’s record of voting against the Child Credit Tax hurts him, as the majority say this would make them less likely to vote for him. 
  • In the final ballot, after messaging, Gillen leads D’Esposito 51 to 37.

The survey of 713 likely voters was conducted July 9-12, 2024 by Change Research and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Full topline results can be found HERE.