Press Release

New Survey Finds Voters Support Tax Fairness and Expanded Child Tax Credit With Rep. Ciscomani Record Losing to Democratic Challenger

07. 29. 2024

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A new survey commissioned by Economic Security Project Action finds Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel leading incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani, amid strong support for an economic message centered on putting working families first. Just days ahead of the state’s primaries, incumbent Rep. Ciscomani finds himself in a weakened position, in part because voters are in favor of a middle-out economic agenda, including taxing corporations and billionaires and supporting an expanded Child Tax Credit. 

Arizona’s 6th congressional district is one of several possible Democratic pickups in what figures to be a tight race for control of the House of Representatives.  Ciscomani defeated Engel in 2022 by just more than 5,000 votes. The rematch is rated “tossup” by the prestigious Cook Political Report, one of just 11 Republican-held seats in that category.

“This is going to be a critical congressional race that will help shape the future for so many families, particularly those struggling to afford the basics, including housing, food, and childcare,” said Anna Aurilio, Senior Director of Campaigns at Economic Security Project Action. “This survey shows that Long Island families want their elected leaders to fight for the expanded Child Tax Credit, tax fairness, and hold corporations accountable. Candidates must lean into the contrast, especially on the expanded Child Tax Credit.”

The support for tax fairness, including an expanded Child Tax Credit, follows other research that shows the issue has broad demographic appeal among young, moderate, Hispanic and white non-college-educated voters.   

Key findings of the survey include:

  • The race for Arizona’s 6th Congressional District is extremely competitive.  While voters would prefer a generic Republican candidate over a generic Democratic candidate by a slight margin (46-45), Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel leads incumbent Juan Ciscomani 44-43 before any additional information about their biographies or records. Engel initially leads among young, women, Hispanic and independent voters.
  • Middle class families are hurting.  An overwhelming 86% of voters say they worry that “many in the middle class cannot afford the basics for their family.”   A plurality, 49%, say that when it comes to helping families with the health and financial challenges of starting a family, the US government does “too little,” compared to just 20% and 18% saying “too much” or “about the right amount” respectively.
  • Voters are in favor of raising taxes on corporations and billionaires. A large 71% of voters support raising taxes on corporations and billionaires to reduce the tax burden on middle-class families. A wide 67 percent of voters support raising taxes on corporations and billionaires if it could provide additional funding for housing, childcare, and healthcare programs (30% opposed).  And by a nearly 8:1 margin, voters prefer raising taxes on the rich and big corporations to reduce the deficit over cutting programs like Social Security and Medicare.  
  • On a number of issues, from protecting Social Security and Medicare to lowering healthcare costs, voters trust Engel more than the Republican incumbent. Voters trust Kirsten Engel (42%) more than Juan Ciscomani (28%) to provide relief for families for the costs of raising kids, such as childcare, diapers, and school supplies.
  • The expanded Child Tax Credit is extremely popular. The policy, which was improved to refund poor, working-, and middle-class families more money for each child under age 18, create a larger tax cut for families with children under age six, and make the credit fully available for all families with low incomes, is extremely popular, with 76% support to 19% opposed.  As important, the issue is salient in determining vote choice. About half (49%) say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who voted against the Child Credit Tax. 
  • In the final ballot, Engel leads Ciscomani 49 to 39.

The survey of 855 likely voters was conducted July 9-12, 2024 by Change Research and has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. 

Full topline results can be found HERE.