Press Release
Republicans Made the Affordability Crisis Worse for American Families. It Cost Them the Midterms.
11. 04. 2026
Candidates who centered cost of living swayed voters across party lines and fueled historic turnout among key demographic groups.
WASHINGTON – The midterm results are a political earthquake, and one takeaway is abundantly clear: the soaring cost of basic goods and services and Americans’ inability to afford them drove election results in every race. Up and down the ballot, voters overwhelmingly supported candidates for Congress and governor that spoke to the pocketbook pain Americans are feeling, and they roundly rejected the Trump administration and Republicans’ policy agenda. Rising costs across housing, food, gas, healthcare, and childcare, coupled with Trump’s monumental budget bill passed last year, influenced voters in red, blue and purple states alike.
“Voters, and young voters in particular, sent a clear message: candidates who ignored their affordability pain and economic anxiety paid the price at the ballot box,” said Kelli Smith, Vice President of Federal Strategy at Economic Security Project Action. “Pocketbook populism helped Democrats win back key voters and turn historically red states and districts blue. Voters who helped deliver these seats want to see action and feel relief from the high costs of childcare, food, gas, healthcare, housing, and utilities. There are a number of ways new and newly reelected leaders can do this, but lowering costs of any essential will require addressing both broken incomes and broken markets. They can start day one with two priorities Democrats agree with: one, advancing the expanded Child Tax Credit; and two, fighting for guaranteed healthcare for all families.”
The rising cost of healthcare specifically stood out to voters and was a key issue driving a wedge between Trump’s coalitional stronghold that has held for the last two cycles. Weeks before the midterm election, six in 10 voters said they were worried about being able to afford their healthcare costs, and about half said it’s “extremely important” for candidates to talk about them, tying healthcare costs and the cost of living as the top issues voters wanted candidates to address (KFF). Voters felt this squeeze acutely following the passage of Trump’s signature budget bill, where Republicans cut nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid and slashed Affordable Care Act tax credits that help working people afford coverage, which terminated healthcare for millions and subsequently drove up costs across the entire healthcare system for all. Despite the Trump administration’s plan to obfuscate and slow-roll these cuts so their impacts wouldn’t be felt until after the midterms, American voters took notice.
Results are still rolling in, but we’re on track to see every lawmaker who voted for Trump’s budget bill in a competitive district lose their bid for reelection, a historic defeat. The data show a seismic shift and back up a belief Economic Security Project Action (ESPA) has been organizing around all year: voters won’t tolerate leaders who fail to deliver real economic relief and gut the social safety net.
ESPA was active in 22 races this cycle, working with partners to help flip 18 seats so far, with four yet to be called. Alongside grassroots partners, ESPA helped build public demand for bold economic policy, win over young and anxious voters with a clear and positive vision of the future, and hold Republicans accountable for raising bills. These races included: Sen. Sullivan (AK), Rep. Begich (AK-At Large), Rep. Crane (AZ-02), Rep. Ciscomani (AZ-06), Rep. Valadao (CA-22), Rep. Hurd (CO-03), Rep. Evans (CO-08), Rep. Miller-Meeks (IA-01), Rep. Nunn, (IA-03), Rep. Barrett (MI-07), Rep. Van Drew (NJ-02), Rep. Kean Jr. (NJ-07), Rep. Lawler (NY-17), Sen. Husted (OH), Rep. Miller (OH-07), Rep. Fitzpatrick (PA-01), Rep. Mackenzie (PA-07), Rep. Bresnahan (PA-08), Rep. Perry (PA-10), Rep. Wittman (VA-01), Rep. Kiggans (VA-02), and Rep. Van Orden (WI-03).
ESPA amplified how Republican incumbents raised monthly bills for working families, culminating in the release of The Republican Receipts, showing voters in all 22 target races exactly what Republican policy choices cost them. Over the course of the cycle, ESPA invested nearly $1 million in targeted districts, sponsored over 100 events, and generated hundreds of earned media hits over four separate weeks of action focused on accountability for healthcare cuts and rising costs. Through deep partnership with grassroots groups like Freedom Virginia, Pennsylvanians Together in Action, New Jersey Citizen Action, Maine People’s Alliance, Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement Action, Colorado Fiscal Institute Action, the Committee to Protect Healthcare, and more, ESPA combined on-the-ground organizing, earned media, paid digital advertisements, and national and local creator voices to create a surround-sound campaign tightly focused on kitchen table costs.
Our state affiliate, Economic Security California Action (ESCAA), focused heavily on Rep. Valadao’s vote to cut Medi-Cal in California’s 22nd Congressional District. Our team’s efforts there represent our most layered district program, bringing our hundreds of community members out at ten ESCAA-sponsored events, and successfully helping to flip that district from red to blue and put an affordability and healthcare champion in the House.
We have been tracking how the economy is impacting Americans, and notably we’ve seen voters’ affordability concerns have hit a high in the last two years due to no response or action from Trump and Republicans to address their economic angst. Just weeks before the election, 82 percent of Republican voters and 88 percent of Democratic voters said the economy was the most important issue to them this cycle (Pew Research Center). Ninety-four percent of young voters in particular, many of whom swung to Trump and Republicans two years ago, expressed pessimism about the economy before the election (New York Times/Siena), helping drive historic youth turnout and a massive swing toward Democrats.
Digging deeper into trends, we saw that young and anxious voters, and young men in particular, drove the Democratic swing. According to the New York Times’ preliminary 2026 Voter Trends analysis, men ages 18 to 29 shifted 38 points toward Democrats compared with 2024, one the largest movements of any demographic group, backing Democrats 61 percent to 37 percent. Young voters overall moved 32 points, supporting Democrats 70 percent to 28 percent. The shift in youth vote showed up in every Senate race where Democrats flipped a Republican-held seat, including Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina (AP). Affordability was the driving force to bring these voters to the polls, 81 percent of youth voters named cost of living as their number one concern (Yale). Repeatedly we see and hear that this is a generation that feels the squeeze of everyday costs and is deeply uncertain about its financial future. Winning them back, and keeping them, means connecting political narratives to the material realities of their lives.
This election marks a seismic rift in Trump’s coalition that has been building for a decade, and we will continue to work alongside partners to both hold Republicans accountable and remind the American electorate that policymakers can, in fact, deliver the support working families and young people need.